Best Buys: “Value for Money” Players 2018/2019

I’ve been playing with the statistics from last season since players values were released last week. I’m not 100% sure how useful this is as a figure but it struck me that with a limited budget, a good way to approach the game is to try and find players who are good value for money (points). After all we can’t simply pick all of the best players within the 50m budget. This got me thinking how to measure “value for money”. I found two ways to approach this:

1. Points per 1m spent. Basically take a players new value and divide it by points scored last season. This gives a figure of how many points they scored last season per 1m spent this season. The higher the figure the better.

2. Difference in value. A simply calculation of this season’s starting value minus last season’s final value. If this is a negative figure, it suggests a player finished the season strongly and his value has dropped down almost by default. A drop in value could suggest good value for money.

This is far too much detail for some people and I completely get that statistics mean very little. A team should really be picked on instinct of players you want because you rate them and think they will do well. But I also don’t think looking at statistics (factual evidence) can do any harm. For me any way to gain a competitive advantage is a good thing. Here were the findings:

Points per 1m spend:


Cech: 46
Lossl: 43
Pope: 42
Karius: 38
Ryan: 37
Ederson: 36
De Gea: 36
Fabianski: 36
Romero: 35
Courtois: 35


Otamendi: 56
Danilo – 51
Mustafi: 50
Smalling: 49
Rudiger: 48
Kolasinac: 46
Alonso: 46
Ogbonna: 45
Lovren: 44
Azpilicueta: 44


Salah: 52
Mahrez: 49
Willian: 48
Hazard: 47
Townsend: 45
Sterling: 44
De Bruyne: 44
Sane: 41
Fabregas: 40
Mane: 41


Perez: 58
Rashford: 50
Mounie: 48
Kane: 47
Firmino: 47
Martial: 44
Depoitre: 44
Aguero: 43
Lukaku: 42
Depoitre: 41

Difference in value (players who made more than 20 appearances:


Ospina: -1.8
Mignolet: -1
Karius: -0.8
Cech: -0.7
Lossl: -0.4


Aurier: -3.6
Tomkins: -2.6
Smalling: -2.4
Kompany: -2.1
Gomez: -2
Matip: -1.9
Lejeune: -1.9
Danilo: -1.8
Klavan: -1.7
Cahill: -1.6
Robertson: -1.6


Salah: -3.5
Arnautovic: -2.4
Mane: -2.1
Ramsey: -2.1
Milivojevic: -2.1
Mahrez: -2
Townsend: -1.7
Iborra: -1.6
Sterling: -1.4
Gueye: -1.4


Perez: -3
Aguero: -2.9
Llorente: -2
Wood: -1.8
King: -1.7
Mounie: -1.6
Barnes: -1.6
Vardy: -1.5
Lacazette: -1.5
Murray: -1.3

I think it’s a useful list, it you’ve got a shortlist of players you are considering including. However it completely down to interpretation and must be considered with other factors. For example Mahrez was a player I was considering before I even saw player values. Based on the stats we’ve got I can see he scored well last season and he’s cheap at 4m. I can also see that this roughly gives him 49 points per 1m spend and he’s 2m cheaper than his value at the end of the season. For me this makes him an absolute bargain. However when considering a player like Cech, he’s got the highest points scored per 1m spend and has come down in value by 0.7m. However that’s completely useless information if he’s sat on the bench for most of the season. Regardless, I’ll be taking a number of factors into consideration – my personal instinct mainly, but also upcoming fixtures, points scored last season, likely game time this season, points per 1m spend and value compared to the end of last season. Hopefully this will help with putting together a team based on logical considerations.

I’d be really interesting in hearing anyone’s thoughts on these metrics in the comment below. Are they of any use at all, or completely misleading? If they are of interest, I do have spreadsheet with all players included which can be sorted by any stat, happy to provide the link to this if it’s requested.

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13 thoughts on “Best Buys: “Value for Money” Players 2018/2019

  1. DTT, noticed burnley have 2 europa league games against Aberdeen b4 the season officially starts, if they come thru this tie, do they have an additional round of games in August to possibly pick up the extra pts you are referring to, as for teams starting 11’s, often refer to Rotowire. com, or football scout just b4 start of season, pretty accurate, back to Burnley good league fixtures alone in August & September, bar Man utd.

    1. I am drawn to Burnley players but it’s hard to look much further than their defence. I’ve fallen into the trap of chasing extra games in the past and it’s not worked out sometimes.

  2. Hi DT
    You thinking of doing the fixtures for the first two months for the big 6, help selection?

    1. Yes – good thinking. I’ve got this information written down already so I’ll publish it as a post shortly.

  3. Love all the statistical analysis mate very helpful. Would love a link to your data if it’s possible

    1. I can’t say I’d heard of him before. Not sure I’m overly keen based on this, he could be a complete flop. On the other hand of course he could be the bargain of the season but I prefer to stick to players with a good track record.

  4. I think serge Aurier could turn into a bargain at 2.5m. Also think we have to try and include mane and sane massive point scorers this season

    1. Yeah I’ve struggled to get both Sane and Mane in as well as Salah and Kane but I’m still working on it.

      1. I will be leaving Kane out of my starting team with salah in it. Just need to make sure we have enough funds to bring Kane back in

        1. I’m tempted to just start with Kane. He should be back by game week 2 at the latest.

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