Guest post by Chris Martin aka Sutton_Chris
With the 19/20 SDT fantasy football game finally concluded, I thought now would be a good time to look back on the performance of the Premier League players within the game for the season. This should hopefully help our decisions as we eagerly await the launch of the game for the new season.
Where better to start than the boys between the sticks. In order to analyse the performance of each keeper (I’ve only chosen keepers who’ve played at least 10 games), I’ve compiled a simple spreadsheet to help us better understand how each keeper has performed within the SDT game. *(Please note: The spreadsheet was complied ahead of the FA Cup final)
First of all, if we take a look at the season points totals, we can clearly see that only 5 keepers managed to break the 100 points barrier:
Pope 121 pts
Ederson 116 pts
Henderson 107 pts
Patricio 102 pts
Schmeichel 100 pts
The surprising thing here is that only one of the goalkeepers from “the big six” teams has managed this feat. We do have to bear in mind however that Alisson (and Lloris) did face long spells on the side-lines through injury. Alisson would have most likely broken the 100 point barrier if he had remained fit but I very much doubt Lloris would have given the season Spurs have had to endure.
Of course, simply looking at the total points over the season does not tell the whole story and it doesn’t show where the true VALUE lies. This is where the good old PPM figure (Points Per Million) comes in. To help us understand the PPM value a little deeper, I decided to break it down into three categories;
PPM for current/final price player valuation
PPM for starting price player valuation
PPM for the average (overall) of these two figures
As we take a look at these figures, we can clearly see that three keepers stand heads and shoulders above the rest. Pope came top with an impressive 61.94 average PPM for the season. Considering his start price was £1.5m at the start of the season, this represents excellent value. His end value was a lofty £2.8m.
Next one down was the impressive Henderson with and average PPM of 55.48. Not many goalkeepers playing for newly promoted sides manage a PPM total like this so this is a fantastic achievement. He started with a bargain price of £1.5m and ended at £2.7m, another remarkable rise in value.
Taking the bronze medal, we have Patricio of Wolves bringing in an average PPM of 46.75. Whilst Wolves struggled in the early exchanges of the season (seems like an age ago), they eventually got their house in order and had yet another impressive season overall. Patricio started with a value of £2.0m and ended at £2.4m.
So, in conclusion, with these findings, I believe it shows there is very little value in targeting the Premium keepers, especially when their price is high at the start of the season. If their price does fall a fair bit as the season progresses though they can sometimes be considered. You can sometimes pick up a cheap keeper for a “Premium” team if the first-choice keeper picks up an injury as Alisson did. This didn’t work out too well for Adrian owners however as Liverpool struggled for this spell defensively.
There is clearly value to be had rummaging through the bargain bucket of goalkeepers, and if you can drop on a consistent, reliable keeper, playing for a solid, settled team, then they could genuinely be a season-keeper (pardon the pun).
Given that Pope, Henderson and Patricio are probably likely to rise next season in terms of value, here are a few selections that I think could be good value for the start of next season;
McCarthy (SOU) – Southampton had a sticky time in the first part of the season, epitomised by their 9-0 drubbing at the hands of a rampant Leicester (Gunn played as keeper for this one and didn’t get his place back since I believe). However, just before and after lockdown, they’ve looked a completely different team. Fit, well-drilled and very organised with McCarthy looking very assured between the sticks.
Dubavka (NEW) – Bruce has probably been in the hot seat long enough now to have the players understand how he wants to play. This selection appealed more so when the take-over still looked on as I think this would have lifted everyone at the club. Now it’s fallen through however I’m less inclined to recommend him as much.
Lloris (TOT) – May seem a strange choice given he’s at one of the “big 6” but his terrible PPM should see his price valuation plummet. With this in mind and with Jose now at the helm, he could well be a sound choice if the price is right. Jose may well shore Spurs up a little more defensively and its also worth remembering they will be playing in the Europa League next season too, thus more games.
Ryan (Bri) – Potter is another manager who’s been in the hot seat for a while now and Brighton are a decent outfit nowadays. They’ve recently acquired the services of Veltman from Ajax so you might expect Brighton to be even more solid at the back next season.
I’m sure other names will be worth considering also, but these are the ones that could give excellent value at the start of the season in my opinion. Would love to hear your thoughts on any alternatives folks.