January 2019 Differentials

There’s been quite a bit of talk recently about the value of differentials in the comments section. As a result I thought it would be useful to outline some that I’ve spotted, having looked into this topic in a bit more detail. Hopefully this will spark some interesting debate in the comments section. I’m personally not a huge fan of the differential unless I feel that the chosen player will outscore some of the more popular choices. However I have been known to bring in the odd curve ball when it makes sense from a fixtures and form point of view.

Goalkeepers:
Arrizabalaga (Kepa) – 7.8% ownership / 88 points. For me probably one of the best current differentials. Low ownership despite being a high point scorer. Will hopefully feature in Chelsea’s upcoming Europa League games.

Defenders:
There are some great defensive options when it comes to players who are below around 15% ownership, they include:
Doherty – 11.2% ownership / 95 points
Azpilicueta – 11.3% ownership / 113 points
Wan-Bissaka – 3.2% ownership / 87 points
David Luiz – 8% ownership / 109 points
Alderweireld – 5.4% ownership / 87 points
Rudiger – 6.6% ownership / 90 points
Pereira – 2.2% ownership / 97 points
Gomez – 3.3% ownership / 66 points (when fit again)

Midfielders:
D. Silva – 8% ownership / 116 points
Eriksen – 7.9% ownership / 99 points
B. Silva – 11.3% ownership / 110 points
Mahrez – 10.8% ownership / 109 points
Anderson – 5.7% ownership / 108 points
Pedro – 4.6% ownership / 91 points
Willian – 11.2% ownership / 111 points
Fraser – 6.1% ownership / 106 points

Strikers:
Jesus – 14.4% ownership / 129 points
Lacazette – 10.9% ownership / 117 points
Wilson – 8.2% ownership / 109 points
Jimenez – 2.6% ownership / 94 points

There aren’t too many on this list that would be of interest to me at the moment. Obviously I already have Kepa and plan to keep him. Lacazette might be one to look at in February with Arsenal having two Europa League games in quick succession. Joe Gomez could also be a cheap option when he returns from injury.

54 thoughts on “January 2019 Differentials

  1. Interesting post DTT.

    The only thing that concerns me with a majority of the names listed above is ‘consistency’… yes, they have good points which is great if you were fortunate enough to own them whilst they were in their respective purple patches…. such as Jesus with his turning water into wine equivalent of scoring 7 goals in 8 days, but otherwise they can be rather risky.

    Continuing with Jesus as an example – His purple patch the other week where he scored 7 goals against easy opposition amassed 56 points which is 43% of his total score (129)!!

    If we take this one step further and add the points for his brace against Everton (18) and his hatrick against Donetsk (23), it brings his points tally to a whopping 97 from 5 games.

    This is huge and way outside a range that anyone could predict but again if you look at this in more detail, it means that 75% of his total score has come from just 5 games.

    So what has happened in the other 21 games he’s featured in? Well, in two thirds of these games (14), he has scored 0 points. Granted a lot of those appearances are likely to have been games where he came on for Aguero as a sub (which is another problem with City), but the same holds true for a lot of the players above.

    They have 5 or 6 great games which elevates their scores to a respectable sum, but unless you’re lucky enough to have them during those periods, they are rendered useless.

    An example of this is Felipe Anderson. I brought him in a few weeks back and despite having over 100 points on the board, he has earned me just 6 points in 5 games.

  2. I do find differentials interesting and it’s area I look to dip into. I understand people’s reluctance to go into this area but the right differential can pay off at the right time. I took out Aubameyang for Jesus this month, Aubameyang had 35% overall ownership and in the leading teams of my mini league. Jesus had 8.1% overall leadership and no presence in my mini league. As I was behind others, I thought no point in having the same players above and as I chasing, I might do something different. I made a similar shortlist as DDT above and found that Jesus could be a good choice as Man City had fixtures and form on their side. Also DTT pointed out in his January fixtures post that Man City have 7 fixtures and we should target the games against Burton. Now with just the Aubameyang to Jesus move, now I am in one that is leading the rest. Jesus overall ownership is now doubled to 14%. So differential last can be a game changer.

    As Lee H mentioned, it’s really about consistency. Even the best players have bad patches, Hazard went a whole month where he only scored 2 points. Mane scored most of his points at the start of the season and nothing much after.

    Personally I won’t think I will stop adding differentials and if I chasing in my mini leagues I won’t mind taking a chance on that route as it will a case of all or nothing. High risk could lead high reward. I am already looking to go for Chelsea defensive block.

    1. Yeh, if you’re chasing there is little point in bringing in the same players because you’re not gaining.

      There are of course exceptions to this rule with players who score fairly consistently like Kane, Hazard (until recently) and Aguero (when not in rotation), who are regarded as essentials and not owning them could be dangerous.

      I can’t recall where I read it now, but I seem to remember reading about some guy (a journalist, I believe) who was going to do a whole season without a few key players such as Kane & Hazard and blog the results. Wish I had taken note of it now as it would have been interesting to see the results of a more cost-balanced team.

      1. I can see the merits of both approaches. As you’ve both said – if you’re not ahead of the pack and you stick to the template you’re unlikely to catch up so going with a differential might be the only option. However my own approach tends to be – get in the players who I think are going to score the most points based on the budget available. For me this might be players with a high ownership or it may be a differential. I don’t tend to look at the overall ownership of players on a broad scale.

        1. I would say the only essentials in the game are Salah and Kane. They offer both consistency and explosiveness in terms of scoring.

          I did a review of my telegraph fantasy football team last summer and another TTF player compared his team to mine and we both finished around 120 rank overall but with different methods. He went with a majority of players from the big clubs and I went with a few differentials mixed in. So different approaches can yield the same result.

          A couple of seasons ago two teams finished joint 1st in the SDT. It would have been interesting to see what players and tactics they used. Sadly, SDT don’t interview winning managers (not that I have seen online as I don’t buy the sun). TTF briefly interview the winner but no detailed review of winning team. FFscout go out of their way and bombard the FPL winner with a series of questions which is great.

          1. I think you’re right. I’m fairly sure almost no player is essential. For example for the price of Kane you could have had Jesus and Laporte for the same cost. Jesus and Laporte have scored more points for the same value. I know you don’t agree but I personally think it doesn’t matter to a certain extent what players you go for. As long as you have a sensible team it comes down to luck – or good judgement in terms of getting the right players in at the right time. It’s something I’ve always tried to figure out but surely points scored per million spent is the best metric for getting the most out of a player. Surely having Jesus and Laporte for the same cost as Kane makes sense as it allows you to strengthen elsewhere but people rarely ever take this approach. I may experiment next season with some teams that are completely different and focus on value for money rather than big point scorers. There must be a formula somewhere that proves which would be the most successful way to win but I’m yet to figure it out.

    2. I’ve considered the likes of Luiz and Azpilicueta this season but I’ve never seemed to find the right time or I’ve opted for someone else. Alonso’s price has now become more attainable now also after his early season endeavours pushed his price up for quite a few weeks running. I thought you had a Spurs block RR? Are are we talking about one of your other teams?

      Of the differentials listed I’ve certainly got my eye on Gomez. With his price remaining relatively low due to his injury, it would seem daft not to draft him in if he secures his place in the team once more. Will probably bring him in for Doherty come GW 28.

      1. Any idea when Gomez might be back? I’ve not checked but as you say if he comes straight back in it’s a bit of a no brainer.

        1. Ben Dinnery estimates a potential return date of 04/02. Plenty of time for him to re-establish himself before I switch out Doherty.

      2. In my best team, I got 3 Spurs defenders – so a semi block. I could add more but I think I will go with Chelsea coverage at the back Kepa, Apzil do appeal. Recent results might suggest Chelsea defenders prices might go down so will monitor.

        That team is at 1.5k but hoping to finish at the 1k mark and should be the bench mark for a very good season. 5-10k is good and above 100-500 excellent and the dream one day is top 100.

  3. Off topic a little DTT but I was just wondering if you have any say as to what adverts are shown on this website? I’m kinda guessing that you don’t? I have no real clue how websites are run in all honesty. I’m guessing it’s the hosts that choose the adverts?

    It’s just that having recently seen that ladies use this website, are some of the ads quite frankly offensive? The one that got to me today was the ‘My Blacky’ one which is not only sexist but can probably be construed as racist too?

    Are we Fantasy Football fans stereotyped as keyboard warriors who hunce over our screens arranging a rendezvous with a mature or black woman? I think the reality is more that Fantasy Football enthusiasts come from all walks of life and as such, surely ads should be a little more generic, family friendly or at least not offensive to people of the opposite sex, different religion or race? Cheers mate. 👍🏻

    1. Interesting questions. I can’t say I’ve ever really considered it – I’d just assumed the adverts were all inoffensive. The way they work is that you embed code from Google and then ads are automatically displayed. Most of the stuff I do is in the back end of the website – such as writing this comment now. As a result I don’t actually see the adverts but I’d just assumed that all the ads were fully signed off and approved by Google as it is them who are serving them up. I’ve not configured anything to instruct them on what types of adverts to display and I’m not sure if you can. It would be useful to see any that you think aren’t appropriate – if you could email a screen shot over to me and I’ll take a look. I can then look at configuring the setting to try and ensure they aren’t served in the future.

      1. Ok mate, will do. As is typically the case they don’t seem to be coming up now but I’m sure some of my fellow users will back up my observations. If any others pop up I’ll email over the screenshots.

      2. I’m not saying it’s accurate, or that it is the type of adverts that are on here, but most websites use adverts that link to cookies.

        I’m sure you’ve heard of cookies on computers many times before. Sites are always asking permission nowadays when you first go on to a website with regard to them.

        Cookies track everything you do Online and then ads are put in front of you on other websites that the chain of cookies say that you might be interested in. Call it targeted marketing. As an example, you may have been looking for some new slippers on amazon, and then you’re on another website and all of a sudden you see an advert for the slippers you we’re looking at earlier on Amazon. It’s no coincidence!

        Having looked into the ads here (click top right hand corner of advert which says ‘ad’), you can then click ‘why this ad?’ and it will take you to a page on google where it will tell you a list of reasons why you have a particular ad being shown to you. It could be a generalisation of your demographic, or a site you have previously visited. You can edit how google uses your info from here as well. The advert I had was based on one thing and it was a generalisation that I like fantasy football (pretty easy generalisation!)

        To get rid of the cookies being held on you, you can clear your history. Or you can stop Google using such info on you in the settings I mentioned in the last paragraph.

        Having said all that, I am no expert. And as I say, generalisations are used in these adverts as well so I am in no way saying that it is something you have done to trigger it! It’s just what I know about most ads.

        1. 😂 Well this really paints me in a good light doesn’t it… 😂

          I’ve never been on sites for mature ladies or ‘black beauties’ so I’ve no idea why I’ve been targeted for this then! (I feel like a politician trying to squirm out of being rumbled, or even worse, Wayne Hennessy!)😂

          If anymore come up I’ll have to click on the “why this ad” as you suggest Chris to see if I can discover why. I’m gonna be know as the resident pervert at this rate! 😂

            1. 😂 Bloody internet! It’s a good job the missus has never peered over my shoulder when all I’ve been doing is checking out RR’s and DTT’s latest musings! “Ethnic women waiting for you! Get out of the house now!”

              I could always come up with a Wayne Hennessy type explanation. “The adverts are purely coincidental and must have been linked to my recent internet search for the 1970’s tv show about a horse….Black Beauty.” 😂

              1. I’m getting ads about breast enlargement now! Make it stop! I’m going to have divorce papers to sign by tomorrow… 😂

              1. Do you use an ad blocker Lee? I’m surprised you don’t get any at all if you don’t block them.

                1. I usually log on from my work computer so maybe there is some kind of block installed from whatever security they use, but it’s a clear thread for me, all the time.

  4. With regard to Lacazette I really like him as a player and I think Arsenal are a better team with him in it. That was the reason I brought him in. However, after numerous benching episodes I soon realised I had to move him on as it was just happening too many times. If he can secure a regular starting place I’d say go for it but beware of the dreaded bench.

              1. Haha I don’t think I’ve ever had such high expectations from a player in any given game. Could potentially be very good for a lot of us if he does well tonight.

            1. Well to say one of my new ML rivals has Aguero, Jesus and Mahrez in his team I feel like I’ve dodged a bullet somewhat in last nights game. Yes Mahrez scores 5 points and Aguero 8, but it could have been a hell of a lot more damaging considering the opposition. With Aguero starting again last night, do we take it that Pep still sees him as the no.1 striker and was wanting to get minutes into his legs?

              1. I reckon Jesus will probably get the nod for the FA cup game against Burnley now before Aguero will resume his main striker role beyond that.

                1. I’d thought the same – which could make for a frustrating weekend having made up a bit of ground so far this week.

              2. I was hoping that was the case – getting him match fit for those Champions League games but who knows.

  5. Just wondering if anyone is thinking about putting Danilo in good price at £3.6m? What’s everyone’s thoughts?

    1. He’s a player I’ve not given much consideration to in all honesty as I’ve always seen Walker and Mendy ahead of him in the pecking order. He made his name as a right back but is quite versatile and can play left back and even play as a defensive midfielder. He could well keep Mendy out of the team for the time being at left back Pep wants to keep playing Sane in the left moving forwards. That being said I’m sure it will just be the usual Pep merry-go-round.

  6. I’m thinking it’s all about the next differential and trying to predict who that is , I suppose that’s the whole game though really and what makes the difference!
    None of the players on your list as you say DTT really stand out. Who’s next though , who’s going to finish the season strong, and be a points machine , make the difference. ?

    Rashford maybe ?
    Are Man City going to suddenly shut up shop and their defence start scoring again?
    Is Higuain going to be a massive success and score a hatful ?
    Is there going to be a 2nd referendum?

    All unknowns and no one has the answers.
    Another thing I’ve noticed (does anyone else do this?) is that I’m quite negative about picking players from the team I actually support. Not sure why ?! That’s why forums like this are great, you get a whole spectrum of fans giving good advice , which hopefully helps us all make good decisions (and win cash in our mini leagues) so cheers DTT!

    1. I certainly do t have any problems picking players from the team I support as I’m a Mansfield Town fan! 😂 Maybe one day eh? I can but Dream.

      I can see Rashford finishing the season strong as long as he stays fit, although I’m not sure I’d class him as a differential any longer with over 16% now owning him at the time of writing. At his price though he’s an absolute steal, although I do hear he’s going to be rested for the cup game.

      Higuin is a tough one to predict. Can he get up to speed with with the pace of the PL being 31? I think though with the likes of Hazard providing the ammo, he should do well.

    2. I rarely ever pick players from the team I support – and I use the term support fairly loosely these days. I’m not sure I could ever have Pogba even if he’s a high point scorer. No one knows what’s gone on behind the scenes but for players not to perform then suddenly start performing under a new manager suggests they weren’t giving everything before, which isn’t something that sits well with me really.

  7. Has anyone considered Jota as a differential? Wolves fixtures are pretty good and he is dirt cheap….will continue to rise i expect due to hatrick last week as well…

    I guest its not an issue to raise funds now for people given the Kane injury and most people had him in their squads.

    1. Not for me.

      I had him at the start of the season and by GW14 he was on minus points.

      I’d need to know that he was playing in that more advancing role permanently and see him picking up regular points before I’d consider him again.

        1. He has played there for the last few and as a manager you’re not dropping someone who has scored a hat trick. He passed the eye test for me, midfielder plying as a second striker. That’s said as one has left my team and freed up funds I don’t need the jota move. If I was looking for a differential I would definitely bring him in…

  8. Showing Kane walking around in trainers I know he’s a quick healer reckon he could be bak earlier than expected! One to keep an eye on and to save a transfer for probably early March!!!

  9. What a great game, I’ve just witnessed, everything that is good about the British game, & another 17pts plundered.

  10. No surprise to see Hazard playing more effectively tonight again with an actual proper striker playing too. Hazard simply doesn’t suit the false nine role and I think we could see him back to his best with Higuin up there now. A good signing for Hazard owners in my book. 👍🏻

  11. Nice contribution from Hazard, shame Kepa couldn’t keep a clean sheet. 87 points for the week taking me to 3.3k on the leaderboard.

    Strong squad going on to this GW and then Feb.

  12. Having no Chelsea defensive coverage, I was quite glad when Spurs scored. It kept my tender 20 point lead intact!!

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