November Transfer 2

November Transfer 2

I’ve decided to take Otamendi out as he has been in and out of the Man City team over the past few game weeks. Due to bringing in Abraham, I’ve got plenty of money in the bank. As a result I’m opting for a premium defender in Alexander-Arnold. He could be a good season long pick. So the transfer is:

Otamendi out out
Alexander-Arnold in

Obviously I’ll only make this transfer if Alexander-Arnold is starting for Liverpool. This leaves me with one transfer for the month remaining. At the moment there’s no one I’m desperate to take out so I’ll save it for the last game week of November. If no outfield player looks like they need to come out, I may consider swapping Patricio for Ederson or Alisson if funds allow me to make this move.

26 thoughts on “November Transfer 2

  1. In my pre season research, TAA was number 1 in my ranking system (I ranked most of the players based on my observations rather than stats). The reasons why are: Liverpool good defensive record, high set piece involvement, good crossing so high assist potential also Liverpool are unique in that their creativity comes from the full backs rather than their midfielders so Robertson and TAA play in the attacking wide areas. One of the reasons why Arsenal’s game plan of playing a diamond didn’t work in the 3-1 loss whereas Man Utd’s use of 5 at the back did well to nullify Liverpool’s main threat in the 1-1 draw.

    As well as player selection analysis, we like real managers need to incorporate some tactical thinking in playing fantasy football. The concern I have in the selection of TAA is that well owned at 40% (even higher in the upper regions of rank) so will be more of a shield rather than a sword. All of my teams started with TAA by the way plus also at a good price in the TFF game where he is cheaper than Robertson. The dynamics at the start of the season is somewhat different to now as at the start you are neither leading or chasing so going all shields might be the right way of playing.

    FF scout pointed out last season that ‘ highly-owned players are shields because they can protect your rank, and differential players as “swords” because they can boost your rank.’

    So the question I ask myself in selecting players are they swords or shields. Like I said previously a template team is likely to be full of shields and can lead to limbo. I can be somewhat of a maverick manager so I tend to incorporate more swords than shields. This can lead to a high risk move as my team can go really high or plummet like a stone. A safe manager also known as in FFS as a dullard will have a side will be full of shields and follow closely the template – but finishing not really in the high ranks nor winning. The right approach is a mixture of two (I place Chris in this category as I admire his approach to the game) as you need some shields especially the explosive Mane and Sterling without doubt in my mind the must have players.

    1. Great piece RR! Be interesting to see how DTT reacts to that . I feel the team is starting to look like a selection of shields, as you put it, it is an interesting angle. With the exception of Mount and Tomori, the other 9 players are extremely high on the ownership table.

    2. It’s definitely worth considering and I did try the more maverick approach when I was chasing down the league leader last season. This didn’t work for me, I basically picked one of my second choice players who I wouldn’t normally consider. It was ultimately a choice between Aubameyang and Lacazette. My rival had Aubamyemang so I went for Lacazette. Aubameyang picked up a load of points and Lacazette did very little. I wasn’t going to win the league either way but it ended up just putting me further behind. I had no choice but to take the risk – it didn’t pay off and I didn’t ever think it even would. My point is ultimately you still need to pick the players who you think will get the most points on the board. I favour TAA to do this over any other defender currently so I picked him. I don’t tend to think much about what other people are doing or rely too much on percentage selected figures. Having looked at it now, TAA has a 40% ownership – so a decent number of people above me won’t have him. Also there’s the consideration that having a lot of high ownership players doesn’t mean that everyone above you will have managed to work them all into their teams as well. They may have some but they might not have them all. Again so I tend to pick the players who I think are going to score well, as I can’t see the point in taking a risk on someone who I think might not do as well.

      With regards to your own team. From what I can see – your top scoring team is:


      These are all players who high ownership and there are no real mavericks in there. In fact it’s very similar to my own team. There doesn’t seem to be much difference in our approaches from what I can see.

  2. Great work from RR as per usual, perhaps it’s time to take more risks, in order to climb our respective mini leagues, it may pay off for Chris at some pt, but I think Robbo & TAA, is enough Liverpool defensive assets, assists & 7plus ratings aplenty even if they concede, which this season they are, looking at ways to bridge the gap between our rivals is vital, thinking outside the box, taking a risk on a player who is not playing in Europe, but is in fine form in the league, Maddison, Vardy, even someone like Antonio who came back from injury yesterday, looked great in patches & scored, just needs minutes under his belt, I transferred in yesterday Soyuncu & thankfully it paid off, looking ahead to December, Son is annoyingly matching Kane & some, but waste of transfer, Abraham stays Chelsea going forward look great, leaves Saleh, this ankle injury is troubling, so may be tempted to take him out along with Mount, I already have Pulisic, transferring in Debruyne, he looked hungry & menacing yesterday, here’s the puzzle though, looked at pro’s & cons for all these strikers, & can’t find a solution to the best option, candidates below.
    I could stick with Salah, add Maddison, but is that more potent than Debruyne, plus one of strikers stated above, you thought finding a brexit solution was difficult, try sundreamteam.

    1. Is anyone else actually taking many risks though? Be interesting to hear any thoughts about players people are bringing in before they score well. The problem is a lot of players are scoring well at the moment.

  3. surly man united must bring back smalling.
    he has to return to prop up there leaky defence.
    have to admit always thought he was one off there better defenders.

  4. Urgh. No Mount (again) or Tomori starting tonight.

    Feel like I’m having to put out too many fires this season constantly and I’m struggling to catch a break. On the chopping block for next month most likely are Aubameyang, Pepe and Mount. Arsenal are just so poor and Mount doesn’t seem to be as effective now and his minutes seem to be reduced against the tougher sides.

    I’ll probably be looking to bring in Tammy, VVD along with another mid who I’m yet to decide on. Busy schedule in December so I’d advise going for the most nailed players you can think of as there’s likely to be a fair amount of rotation.

    Anyone tempted by Jesus for a short-term punt with Aguero out? Beyond KDB and Sterling there aren’t many City options that appeal much to me anymore. Never thought I’d be saying that this season!

    Feels like it’s sh*t or bust now with my Liverpool block tactic. If Pool can’t start keeping CS’s soon I’m doomed! 😬😂

    1. Yeah, Mount not starting. I knew there must have been a good reason why I replaced with Pulisic before the international break. Looks like he needs replacing.

      December is a killer month, will it be wise to all three transfers at the first available opportunity?

      Will Liverpool keep clean sheets, I have to say that whenever I seen them play, they do concede more chances than compared to last season especially the first three months of last season. Are they currently missing the quality of Matip? Has VVD performances dropped? A Liverpool fan said they haven’t been solid at the back since a formation tweak in 2019 from 4-2-3-1 to 4-3-3 with only Fabinho as the sole holding midfielder (but not verified this but he knows Liverpool better than me but when people talk about their clubs I do listen as they have a better insight. I sometimes wonder if I should have listened more to my brother though who is a Derby fan and suggested I have Tomori, H Wilson and Mount in my GW1 team but I played it safe and only went with one of his suggestions). I can honestly I am not in a hurry to bring in Alisson or VvD or even Lovren in my team right now.

    2. I’m tempted by Jesus if Abraham is out for the game week but unfortunately Chelsea kick off after Man City. Will you be sticking with Mount?

  5. Interesting stuff btw lads (above). Always enjoy reading them, although I’m finding it a bit harder to get on as often as I’d like with managing an FPL team as well.

    Really enjoying both forms of these FF games although I’ve made more mistakes than I’d like to in both forms. You live and (hopefully) learn.

    1. Don’t panic mate. Not as bad as first suspected according to Lamps. One week max by the sounds of it. Bruised hip.

      1. That’s ok. Cheers. Sounded bad when read match commentary. Won’t worry if it’s short term. Got to use transfers for rest of my team.

  6. Hey DTT if we go for vardy for Abraham we could save a bit by putting him in before Friday as his value will definitely rise?

  7. I’ve just been chatting to last season’s winner of Dream Team on Twitter. (I basically tweeted to see who was actually having a good season so far as so many, who I class as good DT managers, seem to be struggling).

    His response was very simple as to his strategy last season: “I won the whole thing last season: only use your transfers for injuries….not form”

    Is it really as simple as that? Are we all guilty of being too trigger happy with our transfers as soon as a player has a dip in form and then we pay the price when they upturn again or we get an injury in our team that we can’t replace?

    Food for thought…🤔

    I did then reply with “even if you own Aubameyang and Pepe?” 😂

    1. Andrew (last season’s winner) has just given a bit more insight:

      “I had players who played the most games (Europe) and had a mixed City and Liverpool defence (Ederson + Laporte, VVD Robbo)which never got changed. I dodged Kane and KDB (injury prone) and loved Bernardo. As you say, Pepe is a no go as he doesn’t play.

      Auba isn’t doing it at the mo but he’s playing and a transfer on him last week might leave you with Aguero or Abraham in hospital this week. If I had leftovers at the end of the month then of course I did form transfers.”

      Kind of makes me feel a bit better because this is kind of the strategy I’ve gone for this season (targeting the players likely to play the most fixtures with European involvement). I probably have been a bit too trigger happy with the transfers though tbf. Also, the Liv/City combo defence thy is season would just be catastrophic.

      Just feels like a very weird season from an FF point of view. To have Liverpool be unbeaten in the PL so far but have so few CS is just very very strange.

    2. I’d generally agree with that approach. I tend to do the same, I think it mostly comes down to luck though.

  8. So many points by DTT above, I will try to address them as best as possible. However, I am pressed for time these days with two jobs, two kids, love my me time in the gym, Xmas shopping and sleep plus got to fit in my fantasy football research time somewhere in there as well. So forgive me if I miss anything out but I am sure there will be time in the future.

    So I have mentioned about differentials in the past (many posts in recent years on here on the subject as I rarely post about player selection I let others do that – I am more into the tactical aspects). Now looking at DTT’s selection of differentials last season as mentioned above. Yes, Lacazette was a differential and unfortunately the move didn’t work out as desired but what worries me is not the choice of player but the timing.

    You made those differential moves in May so time element is pretty much over. We are the last 100 metres of what has been a exhausting marathon and now the race is a sprint. Few are smiling at seeing the sight of the finish line but for many competitors, they have nothing in the tank and instead looking forward to the next race. Putting in differentials in May is like Fulham being relegated and then they start to feel no pressure and start winning games but the damage is already done. Basically it is like ‘well my team has nothing to lose so I might as well choose this strategy even if I don’t want to and if it doesn’t work I was right along that differentials don’t work’. It is very difficult to overcome any significant gap on leader to win mini leagues. I have only seen it once in five years of playing where the team in second overcame a 60 point gap in May to win a mini league.

    So timing is probably the most important aspect of fantasy football success. You have to hop on and hop off on player selection depending on form. Pogba was the sixth highest scoring midfielder in the game last season but in the time I had him in my team he scored 14 points in 10 games. So I didn’t really care about him being in the top 10 midfielders, what mattered most is his contribution to my team.

    Timing is also important in terms of tactics – when you go play safety or go aggressive. Like Don said last week he has been aggressive in terms of his transfers in that he is using them quite quickly at start of the month and is reaping the benefits. Indeed, as DTT pointed out in his article on last season’s overall winner ‘The player wasn’t afraid of using transfers straight off the bat at the start of the month. On a couple of occasions he used two transfers in the first game week. I was fairly cautious with my transfers last season and I may explore being a bit more bold this time around.’

    Next, moving on, my post on TAA. To tell the truth, I had written it but never really intended to post the piece. I started out positive but ended on a negative note so maybe I thought I was being too critical. But as Dean said ‘Be interesting to see how DTT reacts to that’. Therefore, I was interested to know whether it would influence to change DTT decision or had his mind been made up. Maybe I was being mischievous and throwing an element of doubt. But then again, I knew how DTT plays the game – he sticks to his principles (a good thing I admire as you need to have order otherwise you have chaos) and in come TAA with an overall ownership of 40% and plus 70% ownership in most mini leagues. I do get the feeling that the teams above DTT with TAA (and it will be a big majority and I might add myself in that category because even though I like DTT, Chris and others I aim to win and finish above them) will be smiling as it is one less thing for them to worry out. In snooker terms, the selection of TAA was a containing safety shot. A safe decision is not necessarily the best decision. Like I said in the past ‘winners don’t do different things, they just do it differently.’

    So finally moving onto my team, I don’t really talk about it here. Whilst DTT does make some good points on our approaches to the game and there is overlap in terms of player selection (although I have said previously I have been closing following the template and in some cases vice versa), my strategy is somewhat different. To illustrate this, we need to look back at my pre-season strategy.

    First of all I decided to go with an expensive goalkeeper: Alisson or even Ederson it didn’t matter – they were the same value at 4.5m. Lots of talk here on the value of goalkeeper and ultimately people mainly went with Patricio. For me, it was only between Ederson and Alisson as most recent winners have had an expensive goalkeeper namely De Gea, Ederson and Alisson in recent times. With funds available (discussed below) then these two goalkeepers are being transferred into teams.

    Secondly, to afford an expensive goalkeeper. My strategy needed a bargain player. So had two slots up front for expensive players (Salah & Kane) and have the final position for a cheaper option so my budget striker was Martial as my thoughts at that time were ‘with him being given the number 9 shirt, I think Martial can score a good amount of goals as he is a good finisher.’ So once Martial was injured in game week 3, I then moved for Abraham in game week 5. I wanted to get in GW4 when he scored 18 points but had to wait as already used my August transfers. Now when I brought Abraham in my team, his ownership was around 8%. I always stated here that for me differentials (swords) are below 14% and safe players (shields) are above that threshold.

    Other reasons for choosing Abraham I had written at the time was: I have impressed with the Chelsea striker especially with his finishing. He strikes the ball low and aims for the bottom corners making it difficult for the goalkeepers to save. Three of his (first) four league goals are scored in that fashion. At 2.0m he could be a fantastic acquisition to the team.

    Now Abraham scores a hat trick in game week 5, suddenly he is on everybody’s radar. Everybody loves this guy and his ownership increased by the week. Now he is at 30% overall ownership and 85% plus in my mini league. DTT brought him at around 27% overall ownership. So to conclude, yes Abraham is a template player but when I selected him he was pretty much a differential. Now I can’t be blamed if Abraham becomes highly owned and I wasn’t naive enough that if the transfer works he is going to very popular indeed. I would say my acquisition of Abraham was a maverick move as there was no plan B given how cheap he was and funds used up (except Pukki but I honestly didn’t want to down that route) and no proven top flight goalscoring record. It only looks now with the benefit of hindsight as a safe choice but my question is why people especially DTT wait so long to put Abraham in?

    Moving on, I think my team has a few differentials in Mahrez (7.9% overall ownership) and Pulisic (13%). So Mahrez is a player that I invested in at the same time as DTT and whilst he has removed from teams understandly, I have still kept him particularly for this week as Bernardo Silva was suspended for the Chelsea game and there was a chance that Mahrez would both game with possibility of Sterling being rested for the champions league game. Wishful thinking on my part as you know what team Pep will play. Anyways, Mahrez was close to being star man so a few points lost there.
    Pulisic I brought in my team before the international break, his overall ownership then was at 11%. Now 13% and after this week’s performance will be even higher. The reasons were as follows: I decided to get rid of Mount for Pulisic. Mason Mount has done well this season but I think Pulisic will give more to this team. Pulisic has a number of strengths to his game: he times his runs well and likes to cut inside from the wide positions to the central areas making himself a big threat to the opposition. He has good dribbling skills and so difficult to take the ball off him and so can win penalties as seen in midweek game against Ajax.
    One of Pulisic’s biggest strengths looks to be his finishing (one of Mount’s weaknesses). He recently scored a hat trick away at Burnley with his left, right foot and his head. So he can score goals in many ways and he has that explosive point scoring potential within in his game whereas Mount has been largely consistent. There is a hint of Hazard in Pulisic and at 2.8m could represent a bargain. The only downside is possible rotation with Hudson-Odoi but Pulisic’s form makes him difficult for Lampard to leave out.
    Now was the move from Mount to Pulisic maverick? For me personally it was as I doing one of those sideway transfers where I bring in a player for another player from the same club in the same position. Plus Mount overall ownership was at 18% at the time and 70% in my mini league so no safety in numbers. If I got it completely wrong, I could have been severely punished by Mount owners if he hauled in some big points. Fortunately so far the move has been in my favour with Pulisic with 21 points and Mount on 0 since I made the move plus their values are moving in opposite directions
    So to summarise, I have made a few maverick moves with examples given above but yes I have adopted a safer approach than in the past. Sometimes I have been ahead of the curve which does drive team performance upwards. My strategy is basically to do risk assessments on players (looking at pros and cons) and then decide whether their acquisition benefits my team. I also like to dabble in the tactical side of playing fantasy football as pointed out in my guest article here a few years ago.

    Now I am off to write my weekly team report. Team got 63 points this game week so it did ok.

    1. I think we pretty much play the same game. You probably move a little earlier than I do on certain players and I play it safer but ultimately we move for similar players. I’d not looked at your team up until your post but we both have a very similar line up regardless of how we got there. I don’t think I aim for the template all of the time – Maitland-Niles could be classed as maverick. Moura wasn’t massively selected when I had him at the start, neither was Zinchenko or Gomez. Patricio is certainly a move away from the template. Mina wasn’t a template player, neither was Mount when I bought him in, Tomori isn’t a template choice, excluding Aguero moved away from the template. You could argue that I’ve made a lot of maverick moves this season. I think ultimately we use the same logic at times.

      Let’s not also forget that a lot of it comes down to luck as well. There is no way of accurately predicting football.

  9. I decided this week I needed to try a ‘sword’ player swap. Strangely in my league most attacking trios are pretty much the same. Aguero, Salah, Abraham, kane is strangely absent from most teams. So I decided to go with Kane for Aguero hoping the Mourinho impact might boost spurs. Turned into a great switch for my league position, nobody above me had Kane. Aguero picked up an injury and zero points, Kane bagging 25. I imagine vardy may be the next sword when everybody brings in Kane.

    1. I’m glad I stuck by Kane. Hopefully he can push on and pick up more points this week.

  10. Had one remaining transfer this month. Decided to change Mount for Pulisic. Pulisic is playing too often and scoring too well and is a very similar price. Made sense, since those above me already had him in and were gaining an advantage.

    What are your thoughts about taking some real risk (looks like it’s needed given many of us are quite far behind)? I’m thinking about taking a big name such as KDB and bringing in someone like Pereira given that Leicester have the lowest goals scored against them in the PL. Could also look at strengthening the keeper too.

    Current Team:

    Possible moves:
    Tomori out – Pereira in
    KDB out – Soyuncu in (for 433) or Traore/ Tielmen (for 343)
    Patricio out – Ederson/Alission/K.Schmeical in

    Person in first place (43 point advantage) has:
    Current Team:

    Not sure how I can catch him without making some drastic changes (which may fail or pay off).

    Any advice welcome.

    1. I’d probably have a different opinion to most but what if KDB carries on scoring well and the risks that you bring in stop scoring well? The gap will widen. If you’re only 43 points behind I’d be less worried about people above you at the moment. You’ve got Salah over his Vardy, should Salah start bringing in some big points you could easily catch up.

      1. Thanks DT. I’m not making any drastic changes yet but the problem is that there are only a few players (Patricio, Tomori and Salah) that can make up the difference.

        Vardy is in form and costs significantly less compared to Salah and is also the real goal scoring threat in the team. Salah has Firminho and Mane to compete with.

        KDB is quality but expensive and playing in quite a deep position. Freeing up cash to a player that’s cheaper and scoring well (Tielesman, Maddison or even Triaore) could still return points for less cash and help strength the defence and keeper positions. Triaore has the better chance of the three of grabbing regular starman.

        I’m going to leave the team next month for at least a week before making changes but I now think it’s time to take some more significant risks.

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