I’ve been battling with my team selection all week so I’m biting the bullet and locking my team in now. It’s not changed since my last update but I want to give a thorough overview of where I’m at, how I get here and what the plan is going forward.

Team Selection – data sources

I’ve spent hours looking at this. I’m not big on going with my gut so I decided to look at data instead which should give actual evidence of who might do well rather than just taking a guess. As we know with football nothing is ever guaranteed though. 

This is what I’ve considered in my research:

– Fixtures
– Player pricing (mapped against each other for the top teams)
– Previous player stats (based on qualifiers and friendlies – not the most recent ones though)
– Average points each player would have scored in qualifiers if Dream Team points were being scored
– Top goalscorer betting odds
– Projections of goals for each team for group fixtures
– Projection of clean sheets for each team for group fixtures
– Projection of likely goal scorers for each team in group fixtures

I’ll briefly break down where I’ve found this info:

Fixtures

Source: my own spreadsheet – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x8FfQRwkpUdPoiZ3U-Pd69pSYkxDHX2OGqZO7fIzdww/edit?usp=sharing 

Mapped for a visualisation of the bigger nations with the best fixtures. Numbers indicate how likely each team is to win it by the bookmaker odds. The second number is how many players I plan to have from each team for that given fixture.

Player pricing (mapped against each other for the top teams)

Source: my own spreadsheet – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x8FfQRwkpUdPoiZ3U-Pd69pSYkxDHX2OGqZO7fIzdww/edit?usp=sharing

Second tab shows this, self explanatory but helped me spot bargains. Quickly highlighted Mittelstadt as one of the only less than 4m defenders in the top nations.

Previous player stats (based on qualifiers and friendlies – not the most recent ones though)

Source: my own spreadsheet – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x8FfQRwkpUdPoiZ3U-Pd69pSYkxDHX2OGqZO7fIzdww/edit?usp=sharing

Click on each country tab for this, each player is sorted by minutes played and you can see starts, minutes, goals, assists, price and average Dream Team points.

Average points each player would have scored in qualifiers if Dream Team points were being scored

Source: my own spreadsheet – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x8FfQRwkpUdPoiZ3U-Pd69pSYkxDHX2OGqZO7fIzdww/edit?usp=sharing

If you click “all players”, I’ve dropped all the key players into this list. Sorted by average dream team points they would have scored in qualifying. This gives a good indication of who might do well. Average rating was data picked up from the ffstuff website.

Projections of goals and clean sheets for each team for group fixtures

Source: https://www.elevenify.com/p/euro2024 

I think the team behind the website have modelled likelihood of clean sheets and goals against betting odds and other sources. Far more clever than anything I could do in a spreadsheet, but it’s produced some interesting tables. I’d recommend checking it out on the website as you can click to sort columns but here are some screenshots. It basically gives tables where you can sort how likely teams are to keep a clean sheet overall in the group stage and by match day. I’ve found it really useful for spotting players like Lunin who have a decent chance of a clean sheet but also don’t cost much. 

Italy at 55% for matchday 1 is what makes me want Dimarco so it’s been a really useful resource. 

Here’s some of the data from X posts that the website have made, but you’re better off checking out the website above.

Predicted Clean Sheets Table 🧤

A similar table to the predicted goals but with clean sheet likelihood for each match. pic.twitter.com/W5l6b3JYPJ

— elevenify (@elevenify) June 7, 2024

I also found this data useful that I found on X:

#euro2024: every team's top 3 projected goalscorers for the tournament, via spread betting markets pic.twitter.com/ZcXBTQKk03

— Rob T (@robtFPL) June 10, 2024

I’ve basically used all of the above to sense check each player selection. So I’ve checked past performance, fixture ease, how likely the player is to get a goal or clean sheet and tried to weigh up every selection logically to make sure they tick enough boxes to deserve a place in my team.

Final Team Selection

Based on the above research I’ve settled on the team below:

A quick run through of each player:

Lunin – of all of the cheap keepers he came out as the one with the highest probability of a clean sheet or two.

Faes – Belgium are another team with good clean sheet potential but I didn’t want to spend too much on my defence so I’ve got for a 3m enabler.

Mittelstadt – stood out as a bargain price compared to the other defenders across the top 4-5 nations. High probability of clean sheets as well.

Dimarco – potential for attacking returns and the highest probability of a clean sheet across matchday 1. Comes at a high price but will be transferred out after the first game.

Szoboszlai – all of the data I’ve looked at suggests he’s got the potential to score well and he’s a very good price. He tops a lot of the charts in my spreadsheet.

Fernandes – another who has a brilliant recent goalscoring and assist record. Hard to overlook given Portugal’s favourable draw.

Gundogan – I was tempted by Wirtz or Musiala as they could be more explosive but opted for Gundogan as he’s on penalties, plays a fairly attacking role and has a higher projection for getting goals despite costing 0.5m less.

Chiesa – a one game punt, high potential for explosive returns against an easier opposition.

Lukaku – the best goalscoring record in qualifying by far and good fixtures.

Mbappe – can’t overlook one of/if not the best player in the world.

Ronaldo – starting with Ronaldo instead of Kane gives me an extra 1.5m to invest in the rest of the team. This has allowed me to be strong overall and have two expensive Italian players.

Kane (12th Man) – very risking being without Kane and he would be in my starting 11 if it weren’t for freeing up the 1.5m. I plan to bring him in for matchday 2 anyway depending on results.

Captain: Mbappe
Vice captain: Ronaldo

As you can probably see I’ve tried to not go too heavy with players from one team. This is to spread the risk if there’s an upset early doors but I think I’ve got very good coverage for matchday 1 fixtures.

Booster Strategy

Max captain is hit and miss, I’m not really bothered when I use that. 12th man and goal bonus need to be thought through more with goal bonus being the most overpowered, matchday 1 could be an ideal time to play either.

I’m playing 12th man for matchday 1 – as we can 12th man Kane and increase our team budget by 1.5m by not starting with him in the 11. This gives me two premium Italian players that I can move out.

I can also see a case for playing goal bonus but it’s hard to see a better time to play 12th man if we want that extra budget.

I think a good time for this one might be the last 16. I looked into this a few weeks ago and here’s the average goals per game for each round in Euro 21:
MD1: 2.3
MD2: 2.25
MD3: 3.25
L16: 3.6
QF: 3
SF: 2.5

The last 16 had the highest goals per game.

Plan Moving Forward

I’ve picked my players on price points to give myself flexibility moving through the group stage. If all goes well, my plan would be to bring Kane in and remove the two Italian players. This would leave me in this situation for matchday 2:

I will have 7m to spend on these two positions, which I think is more than enough for a combination of a 3m and 4m, 2.5m and 4.5m or a 2m and 5m player. I’ll be looking to bring in players with good fixtures and may even look at Croatia playing Albania.

Summary

This covers every thought I’d have while making my initial team selection. It’s worth noting that I’ve looked at various other scenarios, a lot could equally work well and there is no set formula to make this work as football is nearly impossible to predict. With the best will in the world, there are a huge number of players who could get off to a good start considering the breadth of options that we’ve got so it’s all down to luck from here.

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Euro 2024: Initial Team Selection – third draft

Just to keep everyone up to date, I’ve tweaked my initial team selection slightly. Everything remains the same as below and for the same reasons. However, I’ve swapped Barella for Chiesa and Castange to Fas to free up funds to allow for this. When I take out the two Italian players for matchday 2, this will give me 7m to play with. I’m hoping this will be plenty to target some good point scoring players during the second round of fixtures alongside my core of players that I’ve already got.

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Euro 2024: Initial Team Selection – second draft

I’ve been working my way through all of the teams looking at good potential players to pick based on the opening group fixtures. As a result, I’ve tweaked my plan for my initial starting 11. 

A big problem that I’ve faced is being happy with some of my cheaper enablers as I want 3 premium strikers and a 6m midfielder. My plan at this stage was to play the 12th man booster for game matchday 1 anyway – bringing in Ronaldo. To counter this problem, I feel like I’m on the cusp of a masterstroke. I’m considering starting with Ronaldo and making Kane or Mbappe my 12th man. This will free up 1.5m to spend on matchday 1, which will massively strengthen my starting 11. For matchday 2, if I want to bring Kane or Mbappe back in, I simply transfer them in for Ronaldo to revert back to my original plan. This will cost me a transfer but it could massively pay off. I’m not sold on this but I’d be very interested in hearing other people’s view in the comments or in the WhatsApp group. Is it a well thought through plan or trying to be a bit too clever?

Should I follow through with this plan, I could start with the team below:

Lunin (2.5m – Ukraine): Not a player I really want to pick but if I’m going to go cheap somewhere I’d rather it be in goal. Ukraine do have two decent opening fixtures.

Mittelstadt (3.5m – Germany): same reasons as below

Castagne (3.5m – Belgium): same reasons as below

Dimarco (4m – Italy): same reasons as below, he would come out after matchday 1 as well.

Fernandes (6m – Portugal): Looking into Fernandes’s stats, he’s got by far the most goal involvement across any player in recent history. He’s expensive but seems like a solid pick given Portugal’s opening fixtures.

Szoboszlai (3.5m – Hungary): same reasons as below, but although he looks a bargain I’m less keen on his fixtures so I’m questioning his inclusion with Germany up second now.

Gundogan (4m – Germany): Should get a lot of minutes for Germany who have a good opening fixture. He’s also likely to be on penalties. 

Barella (4m – Italy): same reasons as below. Although I’m not sure he’s explosive enough to warrant only being in my team for 1 fixture.

Lukaku (5.5m – Belgium): same reasons as below

Ronaldo (6m – Portugal): would have been my 12th man for this week but starting with him to free up 1.5m funds to invest in matchday 1.

Mbappe (7.5m – France): same reason as below.

12th Man: Kane (7.5m – England): would be in my starting 11 for the reasons below but I’ve decided to make him 12th man (at the moment) to free up funds in my starting team. I’m effectively going with the same team but Kane is 12th man rather than Ronaldo.

Should everything go to plan, I’d then be looking to utilise my transfers for matchday 2 by swapping Ronaldo for Kane. Then taking Dimarco and Barella out for two players worth a total of 6.5m. This does leave me a little short of options but I could go for a cheaper Croatia player as they face Albania. But I need to give this further thought.

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Euro 2024: Initial Team Selection – first draft

It’s very early days but as a result of looking over the fixtures and some initial player research, I’ve put together a quick draft team. Some of these players will definitely make my final starting team but I’m sure others will change. However, I think it’s a fairly solid starting point for consideration.

Here’s my thinking behind each player:

Schmeichel (3m – Denmark): A position that I’ve had to compromise on at the moment. I like Denmark’s opening fixture but I’m not keen on them playing England in their next game. I can’t seem to find a decent keeper for 3m or less though other than Schmeichel. If I can free up funds elsewhere as we get closer to the start of the tournament, I may look elsewhere.

Castagne (3.5m – Belgium): Belgium certainly tick the box for three good group fixtures. Castagne is a great option with some potential attacking returns. From stats suggest he’s had a couple of assists in Belgium’s past 10 games and he’s also had the most minutes of any player. I’ll almost certainly start with him on this basis. Decent price at 3.5m.

Theate (3.5m – Belgium): I thought it might be a good idea to double up on Belgium defenders, mainly because I’m struggling to find any good options at less than 4m across the bigger teams. Belgium are strong favourites for this group and have good options at this price point. I don’t know much about Theate but the stats suggest he’s also had a lot of minutes and a couple of assists.

Dimarco (4m – Italy): Italy have one of the best fixtures across the opening matchday. Dimarco is a good attacking full back in a team that is known to be good defensively. Given the group they are in, it’s probably a must win fixture. If I do start with him, he may be a planned transfer for matchday 2 as Italy will face Spain.

Mittelstädt (3.5m – Germany): Germany are another team with a relatively easy group. As a result, Mittelstädt could be a keeper for the duration of the group stage. He’s also one of the few defenders below 4m across the favourites to win the tournament so could be a real bargain. The problem is, does he definitely start ahead of Raum, as we can’t afford to be having players who are on the bench.

Szoboszlai (3.5m – Hungary): Before I started looking into the data, I didn’t imagine for a moment that I’d be picking a Hungary player. However, budget is very tight this year if I want to accommodate the big three that I’ve got up front. Szoboszlai appears to be central to everything in the Hungary team – in his past 10 games he’s scored 6 and has 3 assists. At 3.5m to enable other players he appears to be a very good pick.

Musiala (4.5m – Germany): At this stage, I’ve struggled to get any real data on Germany players as they didn’t need to qualify. Musiala appears to be an incredible talent and looks good value at 4.5m though. Especially when compared to the likes of Saka, Foden and Bellingham who are 6m+.

Barella (4m – Italy): I’m looking at another Italy player due to their good opening fixture. Barella gets a lot of game time and has a goal and 3 assists in his last 9 games. He’s probably someone I’ll move on after matchday 1 but I think he might be a good punt to start with. I’d love to have the funds for a premium midfielder like Foden, Saka or Fernandes but I just can’t make it work at the moment.

Lukaku (5.5m – Belgium): I must admit had I not looked at the stats, Lukaku wouldn’t have been a player that I’d consider from the off. However, he was the top scorer by some margin during the qualifiers with 14 goals. Given Belgium’s group, he’s almost impossible to overlook.

Kane (7.5m – England): his ownership is high and England have a good opening fixture. Too dangerous to leave out in my opinion. 

Mbappe (7.5m – France): another expensive attacking player but another who is virtually impossible to leave out with a good opening fixture. Will have very high ownership as well. 

As a first draft, I’m fairly happy with this team. But it does have its problems:

• Other than my front three it is lacking in some of the highly owned premium players such as Bellingham and Foden. 
• It’s weak defensively should my gamble on Belgium players not pay off. 
• There’s very little room to be flexible as I’ve got no money in the bank. Once I move on Barella and Dimarco, I’m still only going to have 8m to spend on two players that I bring in.
• I haven’t got a player from Portugal despite them having a relatively good group draw and I see them going far in the tournament. There are a lot of players from their team that I’d like to include, such as Silva, Cancelo, Ronaldo and Fernandes.