I’ve finally reached a decision on transfers to be used in October. I’ve outlined these decisions briefly below. If you’re following the team closely feel free to object in the comments section and I’d be happy to consider going down a different path.
I plan to make two transfers straight away:
Ogbonna out, Cahill in
Aguero out, Jesus in
Here’s the justification:
Ogbonna needs to be replaced as he’s getting no game time. I initially planned to take out both Kompany and Ogbonna and bring in Baines and Stones. However by just taking out Ogbonna I think I can save a transfer in the short term by holding onto Kompany for a little longer. I agree he’s unlikely to be fit and even if he was, who would he replace in the City starting line up. But if Baines doesn’t have an overly strong week, then we’ve not lost out on anything but have saved a transfer. I’ve opted to bring in Cahill as he’s slightly better value at 4.8m compared to Stones.
Aguero obviously needs replacing due to injury. I’ve been torn between Hazard and Jesus in terms of who will score the most points in October. I’m favouring Jesus slightly as he should lead the line for City in Aguero’s absence and Hazard is yet to hit his top form. I put this in a poll on twitter and the result also slightly favoured Jesus. I don’t think many people would be able to call this either way as it’s almost impossible to predict.
This leaves us with one transfer in the bank. I think it’s worth holding onto this transfer for at least the first week in October as this will present us with some options. We could either decide to ship Kompany out if he doesn’t at least make the bench during the game week. Or if Hazard looks like he’s going to hit big points during October we’ve got the option to take out Eriksen and bring in Hazard.
The transfers don’t need to be made until Saturday afternoon, so I’d appreciate any comments below if anyone disagrees with the logic or wants to propose a different option. I’m currently liking the idea of saving a transfer and potentially having a Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd defender, with the option of having Hazard and Jesus in at some point. This is the only way I can see that happening. Also if Aguero was to make the bench at the weekend, this plan would need rethinking, however I don’t see that happening.
Plan B: The Aguero situation
There’s a lot of talk around when Aguero is likely to be fit. Fortunately we have the opportunity to look at who is starting at 3pm on Saturday before making any decisions. For me it’s a fairly simple one. If Aguero starts the game (I can’t imagine he will) then we don’t transfer him out. If he doesn’t make the bench, we stick to the plan above as who knows how long it could drag on for.
The difficulty will be if he doesn’t start but makes the bench. In this scenario I’d be tempted to leave him in. But will confirm tomorrow. Either way we will be left with a problem. Here’s the situation if we leave him in:
Kompany out, Cahill in
Sticking with Aguero means we can’t use the leftover funds to shift Ogbonna for Cahill. It would have to be a straight swap for Kompany. If we wanted to then upgrade Ogbonna to Baines we are frustratingly 0.1m short for making this transfer. We would be pushed into taking out Eriksen for Hazard and still end up using all three transfers in one go. This isn’t something I want to do with so much up in the air. As a result, if we keep Aguero, I’d propose just one transfer this week. Kompany out and Cahill in. This leaves us with a week to look at the Aguero situation in more detail and also keep an eye on Hazard. Yes, this means we are stuck with Ogbonna for another week but we do have a plan to get rid of him and player values aren’t going to change until next Friday so if we make our next transfers on Thursday we aren’t going to miss out on anyone.
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